Charlie Munger, the influential vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and renowned business partner of Warren Buffett, passed away on November 28, just shy of his 100th birthday. Munger's wit and profound wisdom were hallmarks of his character, contributing significantly to Berkshire Hathaway's remarkable success, with an annual stock return of 19.8% from 1965 to 2022, surpassing the S&P 500’s 9.9% return.
Munger's insights, often shared through volumes like "Poor Charlie’s Almanack" and "The Tao of Charlie Munger," have left a lasting impact, particularly in the investment world. Here are five key pieces of advice from Munger that have shaped many perspectives:
Mental Models: Munger emphasized the importance of developing a "latticework" of mental models, which are conceptual structures drawn from various disciplines to aid decision-making. This approach, spanning fields like philosophy, physics, and investing, helps create a more holistic understanding of the world.
Inversion: He advocated for the use of inversion, a technique where problems are approached by considering the opposite outcomes. By understanding what leads to failure, one can better navigate towards success, whether in personal goals or investment strategies.
Understanding Opposing Views: Munger advised against forming opinions without considering all sides of an issue. He believed that ideological thinking was detrimental, advocating for thorough research and understanding of opposing arguments before forming an opinion.
Avoiding Predictions: Contrary to popular belief, Munger and Buffett's success was not based on predicting the future. They focused on investing in good businesses and staying committed, rather than relying on expert forecasts or attempting to predict market movements.
Reading and Lifelong Learning: Munger attributed much of his wisdom to his habit of voracious reading. He believed that constant learning and exposure to diverse ideas were essential for personal growth and development.
In conclusion, Charlie Munger's legacy extends far beyond his business acumen. His insights into decision-making, learning, and life philosophy have left an indelible mark on those who have followed his teachings. While he may be no longer with us, his wisdom will continue to inspire generations to come.
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A recently unearthed entry in a 15th-century manuscript sheds new light on the legacy of Thurstan, the Archbishop of York from 1114 to 1140. Previously thought to have been overlooked for sainthood, the discovery in a service book from Pontefract Priory confirms Thurstan's status as a saint. The entry, found by English Heritage Senior Properties Historian Dr. Michael Carter at King’s College Cambridge, records Thurstan’s death on February 6th, 1140, in red ink, indicating its significance to the monks at the time.
Thurstan was a pivotal figure in medieval England, deeply involved in both church and state affairs. He championed religious reform and played a crucial role in founding many of Northern England’s major monasteries, including Furness Abbey, Gisborough Priory, and Rievaulx Abbey, among others. Thurstan also demonstrated political acumen, leading the English army to victory against the Scots in 1138 and settling a longstanding dispute over precedence between Canterbury and York.
Born in Normandy in 1070, Thurstan aspired to become a Cluniac monk, fulfilling his vow by retiring to the Cluniac priory at Pontefract in 1140, where he passed away. Despite being well-known among medieval historians for his political and social influence, Thurstan's sainthood was previously unrecognized. Dr. Carter's discovery firmly establishes Thurstan as a saint, placing him alongside other revered figures of Northern England's religious history.
Several indicators of Thurstan's sanctity exist in historical records. The archdeacon of Nottingham reportedly had a vision of Thurstan in heaven shortly after his death, while accounts of the opening of his tomb revealed an incorrupt body and vestments emitting a sweet smell – both considered signs of sainthood in the medieval period.
Professor Janet Burton, an expert in medieval history, emphasizes Thurstan's transformative impact on his diocese, introducing administrative reforms and fostering new monastic foundations. His interactions with prominent figures in European religious movements highlight his broad influence and progressive ideas.
Thurstan's newfound status as a saint adds a significant dimension to his historical legacy, affirming his place among the revered religious figures of medieval England and Europe.
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Aaryn Flynn, known for his influential work on RPGs like Mass Effect and Dragon Age, is now ready to launch his new survival game, Nightingale. This launch comes at a time of increased interest in the survival genre, with several successful releases in 2024. Nightingale stands out with its unique 'gaslamp fantasy' setting, blending Victorian aesthetics with fantastical elements. Players are guided by Puck, the fairy from A Midsummer Night's Dream, through a world populated by characters from classic literature and history.
Nightingale's gameplay is shaped by its realm system, allowing players to manipulate different realms with 'Realm Cards,' creating diverse environments and challenges. The game's development was transformed by the adoption of Unreal Engine 5, enabling the team to create a more visually stunning and immersive experience. While Nightingale begins with familiar survival mechanics, such as gathering resources and building a base, Flynn emphasizes the game's departure from the traditional 'sticks and stones' approach, offering more magical and aesthetic elements to differentiate it from other games in the genre.
Flynn acknowledges the influence of recent games like Valheim, which showcased a different approach to survival gameplay, inspiring confidence in Nightingale's unique direction. Despite competition from other survival games, each offering its own distinct style and mechanics, Flynn remains optimistic about Nightingale's place in the evolving genre landscape. He sees the diversity in the genre as a positive development, creating a vibrant and dynamic environment for developers and players alike.
In conclusion, Aaryn Flynn's Nightingale represents a bold step forward for the survival genre, offering a unique and immersive experience that builds on the success of his previous work while embracing new creative possibilities. As Nightingale prepares for launch, it stands as a testament to the innovation and creativity driving the evolution of the survival genre.
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Michigan State University students, along with activists and speakers, gathered at the state Capitol to rally against gun violence, marking the one-year anniversary of a campus shooting that claimed three lives and injured five others.
Speaker Maya Manuel, once a student and now active in student activism groups, including Sit Down MSU, Students Demand Action at MSU, and End Gun Violence Now, delivered an emotional address, urging legislators to prioritize safer gun laws. She criticized those who opposed recent gun sense legislation, stating they "do not deserve a seat."
Saylor Reinders, a junior at MSU and co-leader of the campus chapter of Students Demand Action, praised Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and supportive legislators for enacting four gun violence prevention laws last year. However, she emphasized the ongoing need for more action, citing the daily toll of approximately 120 Americans dying from gun violence.
Reinders called for continued advocacy to prevent future tragedies, highlighting the pervasive nature of gun violence and its impact on daily life. She urged Michigan legislators to push for further regulation, emphasizing the need to address the root causes of violence in communities.
Former MSU student body President Jo Kovach, joined by current President Emily Hoyumpa, emphasized the work that remains to be done, noting that an average of 1,382 Michiganders are killed by firearms each year. Kovach highlighted the need for stricter laws and increased funding for social services to prevent violence.
Throughout the rally, speakers reflected on the lives lost in the campus shooting and expressed their determination to push for change. Despite the ongoing grief, there were moments of hope for the future and gratitude for those supporting the cause.
In closing, Manuel expressed gratitude for the support and emphasized the importance of continuing the fight against gun violence. She noted that while progress has been made, there is still much work to be done to ensure a safer future for all.
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An appeals court in Chile has ruled that the investigation into the death of Nobel laureate Pablo Neruda, days after the country's 1973 military coup, should be reopened. The court stated that new steps could help clarify what killed the poet, who was best known for his love poems and accumulated dozens of prizes, including the 1971 Nobel Prize for Literature.
The ruling comes after a request by Neruda's nephew, Rodolfo Reyes, to reopen the case and investigate causes other than cancer, which was listed on his death certificate. Reyes cited forensic experts from Canada, Denmark, and Chile who found evidence suggesting Neruda was poisoned. According to Reyes, forensic tests indicated a presence of "a great quantity of Cloristridium botulinum, which is incompatible with human life," a toxin that can cause nervous system paralysis and death.
The official position has long been that Neruda died of complications from prostate cancer, but his driver has argued for decades that he was poisoned. Previous international forensic experts rejected the official cause of death as cachexia, or weakness and wasting of the body due to chronic illness, but they did not determine what did kill Neruda.
The appeals court in Santiago unanimously revoked a judge's resolution from December that rejected the request to reopen the case. The new procedures include a calligraphic analysis of the death certificate, a meta-analysis of test results from foreign agencies, and subpoenas for statements from Chile's documentation project and an expert on Clostridium botulinum.
Neruda, a Communist Party member and friend of Chile's President Salvador Allende, planned to go into exile in Mexico, where he would have been an influential voice against the dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet. However, he died a day before his planned departure, on September 23, 1973, in a clinic in Santiago. Suspicions that the dictatorship had a hand in his death have persisted, and Neruda's body was exhumed in 2013 for further investigation.
Chile's government stated in 2015 that it was "highly probable that a third party" was responsible for Neruda's death. In 2017, authorities reported the discovery of fragments of Clostridium botulinum bacteria in his skeletal remains and teeth. Neruda was reburied in his favorite home overlooking the Pacific Coast, but questions surrounding his death continue to linger, prompting the recent ruling to reopen the investigation.
A recent study challenges the notion that large language models (LLMs) acquire emergent abilities suddenly and unpredictably. The study, conducted by researchers at Stanford University, suggests that these abilities actually develop gradually and predictably, depending on how they are measured.
LLMs, like the ones powering chatbots such as ChatGPT, learn by analyzing vast amounts of text data. As the size of these models increases, so does their ability to complete tasks, including ones for which they were not explicitly trained. This growth in performance has led to the perception of emergent abilities in LLMs, which are collective behaviors that appear once a system reaches a high level of complexity.
However, the Stanford researchers argue that the perception of emergence is influenced by how LLMs are measured. They conducted experiments with addition tasks, showing that the ability to add did not emerge suddenly at a certain threshold, as previously thought. Instead, they found that as the size of the LLM increased, its ability to predict the correct sequence of digits in addition problems improved gradually and predictably when measured using a different metric that awarded partial credit.
While this study challenges the idea of emergence in LLMs, other researchers point out that it does not fully dispel the notion. Some argue that the unpredictability of emergent abilities lies in the difficulty of predicting which metrics will show abrupt improvement in an LLM. Nevertheless, this research highlights the importance of considering how we measure the abilities of LLMs and raises questions about how these models will continue to evolve in the future.
As LLMs grow larger and more complex, they are likely to exhibit new and unexpected behaviors. Understanding how these behaviors emerge and how they can be predicted is crucial for the development of AI technologies.
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Caitlin Clark and Sabrina Ionescu are leading a new era in women's basketball, where the 3-pointer has become a game-changer. Clark recently broke the NCAA women’s career scoring record with her trademark long-range shots, while Ionescu impressed in a 3-point shooting contest against NBA star Stephen Curry.
The 3-point shot has transformed women's basketball, offering players of all sizes an opportunity to shine. Previously, the dunk was seen as the pinnacle of the game, but now the 3-pointer has taken its place, making the sport more inclusive and exciting.
Clark, known for her audacious 3-point attempts, has not only amassed impressive statistics but has also captured the attention of fans with her daring shots. Similarly, Ionescu's decision to compete in a 3-point contest with the NBA's smaller ball and a farther shooting distance exemplifies the changing landscape of women's basketball.
The rise of the 3-pointer in women's basketball can be attributed to the influence of analytics and the success of players like Diana Taurasi and Curry. Teams like the New York Liberty and the Aces have embraced the long ball, recognizing that three points are better than two.
The shift towards prioritizing the 3-pointer in women's basketball began in 2010 when FIBA moved back the 3-point line and introduced World Cup competitions for U17 players. This change challenged young players to develop their long-range shooting skills, leading to the emergence of players like Clark, Ionescu, and JuJu Watkins.
Overall, Clark and Ionescu are paving the way for a new generation of women's basketball players who are redefining the game with their skill and ambition. Their impact is just beginning, and we can expect to see more players follow in their footsteps, making the 3-pointer a fundamental part of women's basketball.
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Evergrande Group, established in 1996, rose swiftly to become a Fortune Global 500 company by 2016, expanding into various industries beyond real estate. However, its aggressive borrowing practices led to significant debt, exceeding $335 billion in 2022. The company's financial troubles escalated when it missed bond payments and filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in 2023.
China's property boom, driven by housing reforms and financial policies, saw housing prices surge, especially in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Evergrande's bankruptcy, while not expected to trigger a financial crisis like Lehman Brothers did in 2008, could affect consumer confidence and the broader property sector, which contributes nearly 30 percent to China's economy.
The fallout from Evergrande's collapse extends beyond financial markets. It could impact local governments and households, leading to higher leverage and reduced consumption. This, coupled with China's geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties, adds to the challenges facing global investors considering investments in China.
While China's central bank has taken steps to support the property sector, including encouraging banks to provide liquidity to developers, structural issues within the Chinese economy remain unresolved. Foreign investors must navigate these challenges, which could impact global commodities prices and trade dynamics.
Evergrande's downfall serves as a reminder of the complexities and risks associated with investing in China, highlighting the need for a cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Lycurgus Cup, a 4th-century Roman glass cage cup, stands as a unique testament to the craftsmanship of its time. Crafted from a rare dichroic glass, the cup reveals a remarkable color transformation, shifting from red when illuminated from behind to green when lit from the front.
Notably, the Lycurgus Cup is the sole surviving complete Roman glass object of its kind, distinguished by its intricate cage-cup design featuring a composition with mythological figures. Depicting the tale of King Lycurgus, who sought to harm a follower of Dionysus, the cup captures a moment of transformation and divine intervention.
The dichroic effect is achieved through the inclusion of nanoparticles of gold and silver in colloidal form within the glass. The exact process remains unclear, likely discovered inadvertently through the presence of minutely ground gold and silver dust. The Lycurgus Cup's dichroic quality sets it apart from the few other surviving fragments of Roman dichroic glass.
Corning Glass Works successfully reproduced the Lycurgus effect in a material with similar composition, furthering our understanding of this ancient glassmaking technique. Recent advancements include the replication of the dichroic effect in a 3D printable nanocomposite material by researchers from The Netherlands, utilizing silver and gold nanoparticles.
Believed to originate from Alexandria or Rome around 290–325 AD, the cup measures 16.5 cm × 13.2 cm. Its superb condition suggests a history of preservation, potentially within a church treasury or recovered from a sarcophagus. The present gilt-bronze rim and foot, added circa 1800, enhance the cup's visual appeal.
The cup's early history remains shrouded in mystery, with its first known mention in 1845. Acquired by the Rothschild family, it found its way to the British Museum in 1958. The Lycurgus Cup, now a part of the museum's Department of Prehistory and Europe, has been displayed in various exhibitions worldwide, showcasing its captivating color-changing properties.
The intricate scenes on the cup depict King Lycurgus, bound by a vine, surrounded by mythological figures like Ambrosia and Dionysus. The interpretation of this scene varies, with suggestions linking it to historical events or associating it with the ripening of red grapes, aligning with Bacchic celebrations.
The Lycurgus Cup's significance extends beyond its aesthetic appeal. It provides a glimpse into the esoteric religious practices of its time, reflecting a deeper and more complex understanding than contemporary Christianity. Whether used for feasts or Bacchic rituals, the cup's lack of a foot hints at its communal use, possibly passed around during medieval cultures.
The Lycurgus Cup remains a captivating artifact, a masterpiece of ancient glasswork, and a subject of ongoing scientific exploration. Its ability to bridge the past and present, coupled with advancements in nanocomposite replication, ensures its enduring legacy in both historical and scientific contexts.
Michał Kalecki, a Polish Marxian economist born in 1899, made substantial contributions to economic theory and policy during the 20th century. Working across prestigious institutions like the London School of Economics, University of Cambridge, and University of Oxford, he also served as an economic advisor to several governments, including Poland, France, Cuba, Israel, Mexico, and India.
Kalecki's influence on economic thought is often compared to that of John Maynard Keynes, although he remains less known in English-speaking circles. He integrated Marxist class analysis with oligopoly theory, impacting both neo-Marxian and post-Keynesian schools of thought. Utilizing mathematical models and statistical data, he was among the early macroeconomists to apply these tools to economic questions.
Central to Kalecki's theories was the circular flow of income, building on the Physiocrat François Quesnay's principles. He asserted that in a capitalist economy, production and employment are primarily determined by business investment, challenging traditional economic models.
Kalecki's economic views emphasized the role of government intervention and the interaction between the state and private sectors. He argued that prevailing economic growth models overlooked the government sector's significance and the empirical role it played. Kalecki's skepticism extended to the idea that higher wages could lead to fuller employment, challenging conventional economic wisdom.
In his notable 1943 statement, Kalecki highlighted the preference of business leaders for "discipline in the factories" and "political stability" over profits, recognizing unemployment as an integral part of the capitalist system. He contended that capitalists sought to limit government intervention that disrupted laissez-faire conditions, except in the case of armament spending.
Kalecki's monetary theory was rooted in Knut Wicksell's business cycle theory, emphasizing credit as a fundamental component of the capitalist economy. Unlike Keynes, Kalecki saw monetary policy as endogenous to the business cycle, influenced by business investment rather than interest rates.
One of Kalecki's most famous contributions was his profit equation, derived concisely and intuitively. He asserted that profits were equal to the sum of investment and capitalists' consumption, with investment and consumption decisions determining profits.
Kalecki's interest extended to income distribution, where he explored imperfectly competitive markets and oligopolistic conditions. His model suggested that the wage share in national income remained roughly constant over the business cycle, influenced by factors such as the degree of monopoly and the relationship between raw material costs and wages.
In analyzing the business cycle, Kalecki's investment function played a crucial role. He formulated an equation where investment decisions depended on factors like savings, the rate of change of profits, and the stock of fixed capital. The cyclical nature of investment decisions, leading to economic fluctuations, formed a central aspect of Kalecki's economic insights.
Despite Kalecki's considerable theoretical and practical contributions, he remained more practically oriented than academically inclined. His work, rooted in practical experiences including engineering, journalism, and credit investigation, provided a distinctive perspective that challenged established economic doctrines.
In 1970, Michał Kalecki was nominated for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, a testament to the impact of his theories on the field. His legacy endures as a significant figure in economic thought, challenging conventional wisdom and providing valuable insights into the dynamics of capitalist economies.