Putin’s Rhetoric at St. Petersburg Forum Raises Global Concerns

2024

Ever since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has engaged in nuclear threats, implying that challenging a nuclear power like Russia could have dire consequences. Today, President Putin claimed that Russia wouldn’t need to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine. This statement came during a panel discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, often referred to as 'Russia’s Davos.'

Putin's interviewer was Sergei Karaganov, a hawkish Russian foreign policy expert who last year called for a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Today, Karaganov suggested using a “nuclear pistol” to threaten the West over Ukraine. Although Putin’s language was less extreme, he did not rule out changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. He stated, “This doctrine is a living tool and we are carefully watching what is happening in the world around us and do not exclude making changes to this doctrine. This is also related to the testing of nuclear weapons.”

Putin warned European countries supporting Ukraine that Russia has “many more [tactical nuclear weapons] than there are on the European continent, even if the United States brings theirs over.” He added, “Europe does not have a developed [early warning system]. In this sense they are more or less defenceless.” Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller warheads designed to destroy targets without widespread radioactive fallout.

This week in St. Petersburg has been surreal. On one hand, an international economic forum has been taking place, signaling that Russia is open for business. On the other hand, Russia is in its third year of war in Ukraine and is the most heavily sanctioned country in the world. Tensions between Russia and the West are high.

Earlier this week, at a meeting with international news agency chiefs in St. Petersburg, Putin suggested that Russia might supply advanced conventional long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets. This was in response to NATO allies allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. He repeated this idea again today, saying, “We are not supplying those weapons yet, but we reserve the right to do so to those states or legal entities which are under certain pressure, including military pressure, from the countries that supply weapons to Ukraine and encourage their use on Russian territory.” He did not provide details or names.

Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Russian state TV host, commented on the possibility of Russia deploying missiles to other parts of the world, saying, “Wherever we think it is necessary, we’re definitely going to put them. As President Putin made clear, we’ll investigate this question.”

In the West, some view this as mere sabre-rattling. Solovyov responded, “It’s always a bluff. Until the time when it is not. You can keep thinking that Russia is bluffing and then, one day, there is no more Great Britain to laugh at. Don’t you ever try to push the Russian bear thinking that ‘Oh, it’s a kitten, we can play with it.’”

CEOs from Europe and America used to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, but not anymore. This year, delegations from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and South America were present. Russia is using this event to show that despite Western sanctions, there are many countries willing to do business with Russia.

In St. Petersburg, we learned that Vladimir Putin is increasingly confident and determined not to back down. He appears to believe that in the current standoff between Russia and the West, the West will blink first. On Friday, he again threatened to send weapons to Western adversaries without naming specific countries or groups. This threat follows the U.S. giving Ukraine permission to strike within a limited area of Russia with American-made weapons.

Putin reaffirmed his readiness to use nuclear weapons if he perceives a threat to Russian sovereignty, even though he said the current threat level does not warrant such use under Moscow’s nuclear doctrine. However, he noted that this could change.

Russia's saber-rattling has intensified amid new U.S. aid packages to Ukraine and the recent permission for Ukraine to strike Russian targets. Russia has also sent three navy ships and a nuclear-powered submarine to Cuba for an official visit next week, according to the Cuban armed forces. U.S. officials expect the two countries to engage in exercises involving both Russian aircraft and combat naval vessels near the United States, the first such exercise in five years.